As investment advisors say, you can't time the market. But in real estate, there is one sure thing--the end of the month will be a busy time for closings. Why? Well, when you buy a home, the interest clock starts ticking from the date of closing. When you pay your mortgage, the interest is paid for the full month in arrears. That means that any interest 'charged' in the current month is due at closing. Let's put that into perspective. Today is the 11th. IF you closed today, your new loan's first payment would be due in APRIL. When you pay April's payment, guess what? You just covered all the interest for MARCH. That leaves February hanging so that would leave 19 days of interest left due and payable at closing. For a $200,000 loan at 4.25%, that would be around $23 per day SO you'd have to come up with $437 at closing to cover the interest. If you closed on the 29th, you'd have to pay ONE day of interest or $23; if you closed on Friday the 26th you'd pay $92. IF you are a cash-strapped buyer that extra money can mean a LOT (like paying for movers or pizza for all your buddies who are helping you move). I can see why people want to close at month-end but let me tell you why NOT.
Think of it this way--this is not a revelation to realtors and loan officers. They know their clients' personal situations and will try to schedule these cash-strapped buyers on the last day or as close to it as possible. Again, I get it BUT just realize that there are many issues that could come up. As EVERYONE is super busy, what happens if something goes wrong? Primarily, if the loan is delayed then the closing can be delayed. Again, everyone is busy; things happen. BUT why would you want to set yourself up for something to happen to YOU? Also, people tend to want to close on Friday. Why? Well, the theory is so that they can move the next day. IF something goes wrong though, guess what? If your Seller (especially if they are a builder) "doesn't care" that you have a $100/hour mover idling in the cul de sac. They "don't care" that you have everything lined up. If they don't get their money, it didn't fund. If it didn't fund, you don't own a home. If you don't own the home, do you expect them to just let you move in? NO. Again, they aren't truly uncaring people (hence the quotes around don't care). With that being said, ask any closing attorney or agent about horror stories about people moving in and causing damage, etc. prior to owning the home, with the extreme example of that happening PLUS something totally going south with the loan process and then they can't actually buy the home. Who would be stuck? THE SELLER. (SO if you are a Seller, think twice about allowing someone to move in w/o closing; call and ask me why sometime; that's another post!).
Tips? Close the equivalent of the week of the 20th or 25th on a WEDNESDAY. Why? Well, you're close to month-end (less out of pocket, CHECK) and guess what? If 'something' happens at closing, there are several days to sort it out. What could happen? Missing documents, underwriting issues, missing funds, delayed funding wires, delayed documents, etc. etc. etc. In all honesty, I haven't had many closings take more than a day (extra) to fund when issues have come up; but if it was on a Friday, you'd be looking for a hotel!
There's my tip for the day! Get out there and find your next home! (and remember to call us to close it for you!) Bo
Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts
Thursday, February 11, 2016
Thursday, June 11, 2015
Interest rates on the rise... move fast!
Are you considering a home purchase? A refinance? The time is NOW. Why? Read THIS ARTICLE noting that rates are rising but also take into account that it is widely accepted that the FED will raise short-term rates this summer. Sure, those rates actually have nothing to do with Long-term (e.g. mortgage) rates BUT it will still affect the marketplace. If they do raise the "Federal Funds Rate" expect to see car loan interest rates to go up as well as 2nd Mortgage (HELOC) rates, which are based on the Prime rate AND don't forget credit card rates will likewise rise. SO as noted, while the Prime rate may have 'no affect' on mortgage rates, the factors allowing people to AFFORD a mortgage will definitely be affected (okay, if they don't have ANY car loans or ANY credit card debt or ANY other interest rate affected items, then you are correct, I am wrong ; )
In sum-if you want to buy a house or refinance, do it NOW and definitely before August 1st when the world ends, thanks to dear old blubbering Barney Frank. Cheers!
In sum-if you want to buy a house or refinance, do it NOW and definitely before August 1st when the world ends, thanks to dear old blubbering Barney Frank. Cheers!
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Rent vs. Buying in ATL
These people DO realize that you could buy a nice HOUSE in-town for somewhere close to the monthly rents listed, right???
Click HERE for the story. Bottom line--if you can afford rent over $1200 per month, you can afford a home!
Click HERE for the story. Bottom line--if you can afford rent over $1200 per month, you can afford a home!
Friday, May 9, 2014
Renting vs. Owning--a quick commentary
I was reviewing a contract for a gentleman purchasing an in-town townhome in the $300's; his mortgage was going to be about $1700 with Dekalb taxes and it seemed like a killer deal. While he will probably pay some monthly HOA dues, I know that there are older homes in our area (Brookhaven) that can be purchased in this price point that would NOT require HOA dues. What is the point of this commentary? He moved out of an upscale apartment complex because his monthly rent on a 2 Bedroom/2 Bath apartment with less than 1300 square feet was going to be $1625 per month! OUCH!
I am just using this example to give you pause to think about why you're renting (if you are...). If you pay rent, it goes to the landlord. If you pay your own mortgage, your asset is (hopefully!) appreciating and your balance is dropping. If you do your homework, you can find something much larger than 1300 square feet for a lower monthly cost. Yes, you may have more to upkeep but the tax benefits alone may make it worth it! Regardless, I continue to be blown away by renters who pay such high amounts when financing is so inexpensive!
With that being said, move quickly! Rates are still low; inventory is still tight. BUT rates WILL go up and there will always be houses out there--you just have to dig!
I am just using this example to give you pause to think about why you're renting (if you are...). If you pay rent, it goes to the landlord. If you pay your own mortgage, your asset is (hopefully!) appreciating and your balance is dropping. If you do your homework, you can find something much larger than 1300 square feet for a lower monthly cost. Yes, you may have more to upkeep but the tax benefits alone may make it worth it! Regardless, I continue to be blown away by renters who pay such high amounts when financing is so inexpensive!
With that being said, move quickly! Rates are still low; inventory is still tight. BUT rates WILL go up and there will always be houses out there--you just have to dig!
Labels:
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first-time homebuyers,
foreclosures,
housing,
interest rates,
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rent,
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taxes
Friday, August 30, 2013
Why Good Credit is important for loan rates.
I stole the following from a newsletter I received from a realtor friend, Byron Williamson (click here for Byron). This is great info about WHY it's important to maintain good credit! THANKS, Bo
There's a big difference between having an excellent credit score of 740 and the riskier low score of 620.
Not only will the home buyer with the low score have a higher interest rate and mortgage payments, but the closing costs will be more as they pay points to the lender so they can get a lower interest rate.
Lower score pays more for same rate
Consider a $300,000 conventional loan with 20% down on a $375,000 home. To get a 30-year fixed rate of 4.65 percent (under recent market conditions), a borrower with a 620 credit score would need to buy 3 discount points, at a cost of $9,000, according to Joe Parsons, a senior loan officer at PFS Funding in Dublin, CA. But a borrower with a 740 credit score could get the same rate by paying only 0.25% in points, or $750.
To get around the cost of paying points, most borrowers will accept a higher interest rate and slightly higher monthly payment. In the scenario above, a 740 credit score would allow them to pay no points for a loan at 4.875% interest and a $1,588 monthly mortgage payment.
To get the same loan rate, a borrower with a 620 credit score would have to pay 2.75% points, or $8,250 more in closing costs, Parsons said. As an alternative, they could go with a higher mortgage rate - the highest being 5.25% for a $1,657 monthly payment - but even then would still have to pay 0.7 % in points, or $2,100 in this scenario.
Having a good, bad or mediocre credit score can be the difference between getting approved for a loan or having to wait on the sideline to improve your credit.
"If somebody is just right on the cusp, picking up five to 10 (credit score) points may save them $1,000," Parsons says.
Savings, income won't lower your rate
Other than buying down the rate, there's not much more than improving their credit score that someone with a score of 650 or less can do for a conventional loan. Additional assets will help someone qualify for a loan, but they won't get them a lower interest rate.
"Mortgages are generally income based, they're not asset-based," Herb Ziev, a residential mortgage loan originator in Plano, Texas says. "Low credit scores mean higher default rates on home loans".
"It doesn't really have to do with how much money you have, or how much money you make," Ziev says. "It really has to do with risk."
For someone with a low credit score, compensating factors such as having a high amount of savings or having a high-paying job can help make them approvable for a loan, but they won't help get a better interest rate, says Greg Cook, a lender who specializes in helping first-time buyers.
A home loan approval is based on the totality of a borrower's financial profile, Cook says. This includes consistent, verifiable income and a demonstrated ability to save, along with a credit score. The down payment and credit score have the two biggest effects on a loan rate, with a higher down payment needed if a borrower has a low credit score, he says.
Improving your score
The best way to get around a low credit score - and thus a high home loan rate - is to improve the credit score, which can take time, loan experts say.
For someone with a lot of credit cards and credit card debt, a credit score can increase by 70 to 80 points by paying off the cards, he says.
"Sometimes it's as simple as going back and negotiating if you have an outstanding collection," Cook says.
Six to 12 months of paying down credit balances and not having late payments will significantly affect a credit score, says Cyndee Kendall, regional sales manager in Northern California in the mortgage banking division at bank of the West.
Having a high percentage of credit balances to available credit can be fixed in a month by paying down credit balances, Cook says. The ratio should be 30 percent or less, he says.
A borrower can have three different credit scores from the three credit reporting agencies, but lenders usually use the middle score.
Borrowers with low credit scores have the most to gain by improving their scores, Kendall says.
Easier approval on FHA, VA loans
First-time buyers with low credit scores can get FHA and VA loans that aren't dependent on credit scores, though credit history is taken into account, Kendall says. For an FHA loan, a credit score in the low 600s is as low as they can go to get a loan, Ziev says.
"They can get a better interest rate," Cook says of borrowers of the federal government's backing of FHA loans, "but they're going to have to improve their credit score."
What shouldn't be done to improve a credit score is to get rid of credit cards entirely, experts say, though not using them for awhile is a good idea if it can help the user pay off the balance quicker. It's almost a Catch-22, but you need credit to get more credit.
"If you've got no credit history, then people aren't going to give you credit," Ziev says.
(note: Mortgage rates may change rapidly. All rates cited above are based on market conditions at the time of the conversation)
There's a big difference between having an excellent credit score of 740 and the riskier low score of 620.
Not only will the home buyer with the low score have a higher interest rate and mortgage payments, but the closing costs will be more as they pay points to the lender so they can get a lower interest rate.
Lower score pays more for same rate
Consider a $300,000 conventional loan with 20% down on a $375,000 home. To get a 30-year fixed rate of 4.65 percent (under recent market conditions), a borrower with a 620 credit score would need to buy 3 discount points, at a cost of $9,000, according to Joe Parsons, a senior loan officer at PFS Funding in Dublin, CA. But a borrower with a 740 credit score could get the same rate by paying only 0.25% in points, or $750.
To get around the cost of paying points, most borrowers will accept a higher interest rate and slightly higher monthly payment. In the scenario above, a 740 credit score would allow them to pay no points for a loan at 4.875% interest and a $1,588 monthly mortgage payment.
To get the same loan rate, a borrower with a 620 credit score would have to pay 2.75% points, or $8,250 more in closing costs, Parsons said. As an alternative, they could go with a higher mortgage rate - the highest being 5.25% for a $1,657 monthly payment - but even then would still have to pay 0.7 % in points, or $2,100 in this scenario.
Having a good, bad or mediocre credit score can be the difference between getting approved for a loan or having to wait on the sideline to improve your credit.
"If somebody is just right on the cusp, picking up five to 10 (credit score) points may save them $1,000," Parsons says.
Savings, income won't lower your rate
Other than buying down the rate, there's not much more than improving their credit score that someone with a score of 650 or less can do for a conventional loan. Additional assets will help someone qualify for a loan, but they won't get them a lower interest rate.
"Mortgages are generally income based, they're not asset-based," Herb Ziev, a residential mortgage loan originator in Plano, Texas says. "Low credit scores mean higher default rates on home loans".
"It doesn't really have to do with how much money you have, or how much money you make," Ziev says. "It really has to do with risk."
For someone with a low credit score, compensating factors such as having a high amount of savings or having a high-paying job can help make them approvable for a loan, but they won't help get a better interest rate, says Greg Cook, a lender who specializes in helping first-time buyers.
A home loan approval is based on the totality of a borrower's financial profile, Cook says. This includes consistent, verifiable income and a demonstrated ability to save, along with a credit score. The down payment and credit score have the two biggest effects on a loan rate, with a higher down payment needed if a borrower has a low credit score, he says.
Improving your score
The best way to get around a low credit score - and thus a high home loan rate - is to improve the credit score, which can take time, loan experts say.
For someone with a lot of credit cards and credit card debt, a credit score can increase by 70 to 80 points by paying off the cards, he says.
"Sometimes it's as simple as going back and negotiating if you have an outstanding collection," Cook says.
Six to 12 months of paying down credit balances and not having late payments will significantly affect a credit score, says Cyndee Kendall, regional sales manager in Northern California in the mortgage banking division at bank of the West.
Having a high percentage of credit balances to available credit can be fixed in a month by paying down credit balances, Cook says. The ratio should be 30 percent or less, he says.
A borrower can have three different credit scores from the three credit reporting agencies, but lenders usually use the middle score.
Borrowers with low credit scores have the most to gain by improving their scores, Kendall says.
Easier approval on FHA, VA loans
First-time buyers with low credit scores can get FHA and VA loans that aren't dependent on credit scores, though credit history is taken into account, Kendall says. For an FHA loan, a credit score in the low 600s is as low as they can go to get a loan, Ziev says.
"They can get a better interest rate," Cook says of borrowers of the federal government's backing of FHA loans, "but they're going to have to improve their credit score."
What shouldn't be done to improve a credit score is to get rid of credit cards entirely, experts say, though not using them for awhile is a good idea if it can help the user pay off the balance quicker. It's almost a Catch-22, but you need credit to get more credit.
"If you've got no credit history, then people aren't going to give you credit," Ziev says.
(note: Mortgage rates may change rapidly. All rates cited above are based on market conditions at the time of the conversation)
Labels:
closings,
credit,
first-time homebuyers,
interest rates,
loans,
mortgage,
real estate
Friday, November 12, 2010
Good news/bad news
So for the good news: mortgage rates are lower than they have EVER been in recorded history. Can you believe that? Rates are 'around' 4% and some say they may fall UNDER 4% if this QEII is successful. What's the bad news? Atlanta home prices (per the National Association of Realtors) have fallen 12.3% for the 3rd quarter, relative to prices a year ago. Not only that, the median sales price for ATL is $113,500 which is 34% lower than the peak prices of 2007. The odd thing about that is that I've heard so many say that ATL really didn't have much of a 'bubble' in real estate (truth be told, we had a bubble in real estate construction--which is why oversupply still exists)! Regardless of all that, keep positive and let's get people in houses! Time to move out of that basement and get into your new home! I hope sales remain strong for the next few months! Have a great weekend, Bo
Labels:
Atlanta,
home prices,
housing,
interest rates,
real estate
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Big Ben says "Loosen the Guidelines"--Hear hear!
As an Atlanta closing attorney, we are on the front lines of the real estate and mortgage business and see 'what's really going on'. In lieu of continuing to generically (is that a word?) blame this all on "Wall Street" (which did contribute to this mess a few years back) let's take a look at one of the major reasons why we are STILL not seeing a solid real estate recovery--tight guidelines! (and appraisals--try googling HVCC if you want more info about well-intended legislation with unintended consequences) We see it all the time-people with good jobs, credit and income who cannot get a loan. With mortgage rates hitting an all-time low of 4.44% it's an awesome time to buy or refinance! Click on THIS LINK for a video from THINK BIG work small. Cheers, Bo
Labels:
Atlanta,
attorney,
ben bernanke,
economy,
housing,
interest rates,
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mortgage
Friday, July 30, 2010
By the numbers: JOBS and Housing
What's important for our nation's economic recovery? Two things dominate--unemployment and the housing market (yes, government spending is a huge issue but many expenditures relate heavily to the two issues above). The tax credit originally did its job as people rushed to purchase homes last fall. There was a pretty solid push this Spring (prior to the April 30 cut-off date) but it was not as 'robust' as the fall of 2009. In fact, new home sales in May 2010 dropped to the lowest pace in the 47 years records have been kept! Right now, housing starts are down but home completions are actually up as it appears builders are focused more on finishing homes already started versus breaking ground, which is in-line with the tax credit and the June 30 close date deadline (which has been extended to September). If housing starts remain this slow, new home inventories will continue to decline which will in turn help clear the way for more recovery.
As a side note, the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) says each new home built in the US creates the equivalent of 3 new jobs for a year and generates around $90,000 in taxes paid (local and federal) and impacts many industries (such as raw materials, goods like appliances and faucets, etc.). When I say that the housing recovery is key to our nation's recovery, you can see what I mean now! In ATL, we were overbuilt prior to the crash; that's why we were really hurt by the downturn. Even now there are over 89K homes for sale in ATL, which is a 14 month supply. 150K vacant lots = enough to supply builders for the next 4 years per a report by Wells Fargo Securities. More foreclosures = even more inventory!
Bright notes? Our unemployment rate has declined 3 months in a row (still around 10%) and our fundamental growth models remain intact. Factor in all the Fortune 500 companies here, the world's busiest airport, and our strong ports in Savannah, we are still a very attractive area for job creation. With that being said, we may not be back to 'normal' for another few years. The Fed agrees; they noted that the recovery is weakening in many parts of the country.
Final thoughts? Stocks are up this week due to upbeat earnings reports from many different companies/industries and there was a small drop in unemployment claims last week. Likewise, uncertainty in Europe is calming due to bank ratings remaining acceptable across the board after regulators crunched numbers on 91 banks (only 7 failed their tests per an AP report) and determined that most would survive further economic slowdown. The Euro rose and most European markets rose slightly on these reports as well. See? It's not all bad! Keep plugging away, and have I mentioned that rates are at their lowest levels EVER? Buy or refi NOW ; )
As a side note, the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) says each new home built in the US creates the equivalent of 3 new jobs for a year and generates around $90,000 in taxes paid (local and federal) and impacts many industries (such as raw materials, goods like appliances and faucets, etc.). When I say that the housing recovery is key to our nation's recovery, you can see what I mean now! In ATL, we were overbuilt prior to the crash; that's why we were really hurt by the downturn. Even now there are over 89K homes for sale in ATL, which is a 14 month supply. 150K vacant lots = enough to supply builders for the next 4 years per a report by Wells Fargo Securities. More foreclosures = even more inventory!
Bright notes? Our unemployment rate has declined 3 months in a row (still around 10%) and our fundamental growth models remain intact. Factor in all the Fortune 500 companies here, the world's busiest airport, and our strong ports in Savannah, we are still a very attractive area for job creation. With that being said, we may not be back to 'normal' for another few years. The Fed agrees; they noted that the recovery is weakening in many parts of the country.
Final thoughts? Stocks are up this week due to upbeat earnings reports from many different companies/industries and there was a small drop in unemployment claims last week. Likewise, uncertainty in Europe is calming due to bank ratings remaining acceptable across the board after regulators crunched numbers on 91 banks (only 7 failed their tests per an AP report) and determined that most would survive further economic slowdown. The Euro rose and most European markets rose slightly on these reports as well. See? It's not all bad! Keep plugging away, and have I mentioned that rates are at their lowest levels EVER? Buy or refi NOW ; )
Labels:
economy,
home prices,
housing,
interest rates,
jobs,
real estate,
refinance,
unemployment
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Today's little ray of sunshine...
Actually, this could be titled "The Economy turns to the darkside", or so it seems right now! Today's consumer confidence numbers dropped almost 10 points--the first drop since our last 10 point drop (February 2010-the index had risen monthly since that month's report). There are two components to the Consumer Confidence Index-one that measures how consumers feel about the economy (now) and the other assesses their outlook over the next six months. As noted previously, it's all about JOBS. Not the health care debate (debacle?). Stocks even dipped below 10,000 today (around 2pm the Dow is still around 9900 (will the Dow even close above that this week?). To put numbers into perspective, this index hit an all-time low of 25.3 in February 2009. Above 90 = solid economy, over 100 = strong growth. Todays' number? 52.9 (down from May's 62.7, with the expectation today's numbers would be 62.8).
What else is a mess? Housing. Sales of new homes fell 33% in May, to the lowest level ON RECORD after the government tax credits expired (and to be honest, April's closings/contracts were not as amazing as we had hoped). What other fun statistics do I have for you? Auto sales are expected to slow for June (have you seen more 0% finance deals advertised? Yep, I thought so too). Companies tracking auto sales expect a 9-12% drop for June sales, so you can expect to have more TV ads screaming at you between your reality programs (is there anything else on TV?). A quote from George Pipas (Ford's top sales analyst) notes that "The two big issues with consumers right now are employment growth and income growth, and they're not seeing much of either." Well stated...
So again, consumer confidence is in the toilet, sales of new and previously owned homes fell last month, auto sales are down, stocks are down (but hey, Bond sales are up!) and it is expected that the unemployment rate will creep up to 9.8% from 9.7% when numbers are reported this Friday. The only positive things to report relate to home prices rising in April (again, most likely due to the tax credit push) and consumer spending (remember, that's 70% of our Economy) rose 0.2% last month with personal income rising 0.4% (so more saving, less spending).
Finally--what other 'big picture' items could dump us into a DD? (no, not Pamela Anderson, that would be a "Double Dip" as in recession) Unfortunately, there are several disturbances in 'the Force' that are still unsettled. Globally, Asian markets fell after indexes related to China's economic activity fell and European indexes fell sharply after Greek workers walked off the job to protest budget cuts (how's that Socialist thing working out for you?). So roll that into our own government budget cuts, end of fiscal stimulus programs, problems in Europe and a slowdown in China--could that force a double dip recession? Time will tell. But for the United States, 2 comments attributed to a broker in NY (Doreen Mogavero) ring true: "People are starting to see that this recovery, as it is, is going to take considerably longer than anybody had anticipated." Relating to jobs and the job report, "That is the core of the recovery here. People have to feel they're going to work. If they don't they're not going to spend money." Again, well stated. So how confident are you? I'm not feeling it today... Ask me tomorrow or something...
What else is a mess? Housing. Sales of new homes fell 33% in May, to the lowest level ON RECORD after the government tax credits expired (and to be honest, April's closings/contracts were not as amazing as we had hoped). What other fun statistics do I have for you? Auto sales are expected to slow for June (have you seen more 0% finance deals advertised? Yep, I thought so too). Companies tracking auto sales expect a 9-12% drop for June sales, so you can expect to have more TV ads screaming at you between your reality programs (is there anything else on TV?). A quote from George Pipas (Ford's top sales analyst) notes that "The two big issues with consumers right now are employment growth and income growth, and they're not seeing much of either." Well stated...
So again, consumer confidence is in the toilet, sales of new and previously owned homes fell last month, auto sales are down, stocks are down (but hey, Bond sales are up!) and it is expected that the unemployment rate will creep up to 9.8% from 9.7% when numbers are reported this Friday. The only positive things to report relate to home prices rising in April (again, most likely due to the tax credit push) and consumer spending (remember, that's 70% of our Economy) rose 0.2% last month with personal income rising 0.4% (so more saving, less spending).
Finally--what other 'big picture' items could dump us into a DD? (no, not Pamela Anderson, that would be a "Double Dip" as in recession) Unfortunately, there are several disturbances in 'the Force' that are still unsettled. Globally, Asian markets fell after indexes related to China's economic activity fell and European indexes fell sharply after Greek workers walked off the job to protest budget cuts (how's that Socialist thing working out for you?). So roll that into our own government budget cuts, end of fiscal stimulus programs, problems in Europe and a slowdown in China--could that force a double dip recession? Time will tell. But for the United States, 2 comments attributed to a broker in NY (Doreen Mogavero) ring true: "People are starting to see that this recovery, as it is, is going to take considerably longer than anybody had anticipated." Relating to jobs and the job report, "That is the core of the recovery here. People have to feel they're going to work. If they don't they're not going to spend money." Again, well stated. So how confident are you? I'm not feeling it today... Ask me tomorrow or something...
Labels:
economy,
government,
home prices,
housing,
inflation,
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Clark Howard says it's time to refinance!
No surprise, as rates are so low! Contact me for any tips/ideas about lenders, etc. Read Clark Howard's article HERE!
Labels:
clark howard,
interest rates,
real estate,
refinance
Friday, May 28, 2010
Time for a Summer Vacation? Hope not...
As noted in last month's email, the tax credit has expired and related closings have to take place by the end of June. What about July? Are we all just going to be sitting around with nothing to do? I for one (a) hope that's not true and (b) don't believe it to be true. Yes, there are many issues lingering (like dropping prices and an ever-rising tide of foreclosures) but more core items are coming together (like economic growth, increased employment and better rates). If we could just get some common sense underwriting as well as reasonable appraisals, I think we'd be in much better shape! By way of reference, for a great article on the current state of appraisals, click here (great work, Jim!).
Home prices are still dropping, thanks to foreclosures. That isn't a problem for buyers (except as noted in the article above) but it is an issue for sellers. Yes, you can swallow your pride and lose several thousand on a sale in order to save many more thousands on a subsequent purchase, but first you need to find a buyer. What if there is a foreclosure and/or a short-sale around the corner? Unless they are in a hurry to buy, those properties may be more attractive as they can be purchased for pennies on the dollar versus your need to at least pay off your mortgage--therein lies the problem! I have no solution to offer, but at least rates are still incredibly low--the average 30-year is reportedly 4.78%, which is the lowest of the year (compared to December 2009's record low of 4.71%) and more positive news is being reported, except for the BP oil fiasco and European money woes. However, we are benefiting from their problems as investors seek a safe haven in our bonds (which in turn helped our rates). As Europe 'heals' and our recovery continues, however, rates are likely to move higher as investors seek higher returns and focus on riskier investments than our bonds. So go for it now (like all the other consumers applying to refi--currently the highest level since October 2009, per the MBA) and lock in while you still can!
Have a great holiday weekend; THANK YOU to all who serve (or served) in our military! God Bless America!
Home prices are still dropping, thanks to foreclosures. That isn't a problem for buyers (except as noted in the article above) but it is an issue for sellers. Yes, you can swallow your pride and lose several thousand on a sale in order to save many more thousands on a subsequent purchase, but first you need to find a buyer. What if there is a foreclosure and/or a short-sale around the corner? Unless they are in a hurry to buy, those properties may be more attractive as they can be purchased for pennies on the dollar versus your need to at least pay off your mortgage--therein lies the problem! I have no solution to offer, but at least rates are still incredibly low--the average 30-year is reportedly 4.78%, which is the lowest of the year (compared to December 2009's record low of 4.71%) and more positive news is being reported, except for the BP oil fiasco and European money woes. However, we are benefiting from their problems as investors seek a safe haven in our bonds (which in turn helped our rates). As Europe 'heals' and our recovery continues, however, rates are likely to move higher as investors seek higher returns and focus on riskier investments than our bonds. So go for it now (like all the other consumers applying to refi--currently the highest level since October 2009, per the MBA) and lock in while you still can!
Have a great holiday weekend; THANK YOU to all who serve (or served) in our military! God Bless America!
Labels:
Atlanta,
attorney,
closings,
economy,
first-time homebuyers,
government,
home prices,
interest rates,
loans,
tax credit
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
A tale of two stories
Read this article first; then read this article second. Same data, two different conclusions. On one hand you have Economists; you could say they are biased for the positive as they work for an investment company. As for the AP article, you could slam the author as being part of the evil 'mainstream media'. Who is right? We don't know yet. I for one like the Economists' prediction. Why? Well, other than self-serving cheerleading (e.g. real estate is our business) I do like to hear the positive spin, especially after so many negative news that has come down the pike. As for the AP? My guess is to sell newspapers, but I may be wrong. Who knows? As for noting that home sales will fall in the second half of the year... well, let's just say they are most likely not in our business. Yes, home sales will fall in the Fall of 2010. Why? Sales are typically slower in the Fall, but for the 2009 Tax Credit. So having sales drop in the Fall is not news to anyone in our industry--the Spring is 'where it's at' in terms of sales. Summer is somewhat busy but people are more focused on vacation and keeping the kids entertained. Likewise, most sales are finalized prior to the beginning of the school year so that the kids can be legally enrolled in the proper school. As for the Fall? It's just not that active, worse for the Winter. The bottom line is this--both could easily be right and/or wrong. As noted, I am hoping that the more rosy opinion is correct. Rates are still LOW and the inventory is still high so there are a lot of deals to find. If you want to buy a house, forget the tax credit for now; just ask for $8,000 (or more?) off the sales price! And sellers? Just remember you may lose money on the sale of your home, but think of the concessions you can ask for your replacement purchase? Ah, to be liquid... I'd love a mountain house and some rentals!!!
Friday, April 16, 2010
"Southeast Economy Improved in March & April"
So the Fed's "Beige Book" report noted that the Southeast's economy saw some improvement in March and April. Specifically, retailers saw higher sales, increased traffic and that's a big plus as we all know that retail sales contribute around 70% of our economy. Car sales even rose a bit, despite Toyota's recall woes (offset by a big sales push) and Chrysler's continued slump. Homebuilders should be a bit more positive as housing starts have increased over the first quarter (yes, there was a small dip in March, but that was due to a large upward revision for February). Existing home sales have picked up a bit, but mainly in the lower priced markets (sub-$300K) due to the 1st-time homebuyer credit. As noted several times in the past, the $6,500 credit was a non-event as a) people aren't truly aware of it and b) the 5-year residency provision was too restrictive. Prices are still a bit lower due to all the foreclosures out there (expect more in 2010 and 2011 as ARM's continue to re-set). While there are still hurdles to obtaining home financing (tight underwriting and low appraisals) I keep hearing that common sense MAY actually be returning and lenders are having less trouble making loans (I even heard that there is a local company actually doing SECOND mortgages again, the horror!). We'll see how that sorts out; hopefully interest in homes won't fall off a cliff after 4/30/10 when the tax credits expire (for good). Georgia reported higher unemployment (a record 10.6%) which has outpaced the National average for 30 months. Labor Secretary Michael Thurmond notes that there are signs of growth, however, and while we may lose additional jobs in the short-term, a recovery may finally gain traction in Georgia. Finally, the FDIC extended protection for large deposits (Transaction Account Guarantee (TAG) Program, which guarantees non-interest-bearing deposits greater than $250,000, not that it affects me individually!) which will help smaller banks keep high dollar deposits in-house. Hopefully we won't see any new bank closures, but don't bet on it... Have a great weekend! Bo
Labels:
Health Care,
home prices,
interest rates,
jobs,
the Fed
Monday, April 12, 2010
I told you so...
Read this article to see what I'm talking about. Suffice it to say if you want to buy a house and/or refinance, make it happen SOON......!
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
More fun with Jobs and Rates (new and improved!)
Well, it seems ADP is reporting employers cut 23,000 jobs in March, when Economists had expected a GAIN of 40,000. What gives? Wondering aloud (no one is listening) if that had anything to do with the weather but I doubt that seriously. Friday's actual employment report (from the Labor Department) may tell a slightly different story as the ADP tracks real jobs (translation: private sector) while the Labor Department's numbers include governmental jobs, such as all those 2010 Census hires. Either way, Economists expect the Labor report to show an added 190,000 jobs in March, which would be great (and only the 2nd monthly increase since the recession began back in late 2007). UCLA economists noted that they expect the economy to continue to grow despite our high unemployment figures. They even rule out a double-dip recession and I agree. I doubt we'll have a V-shaped recovery (i.e. a sharp rise to contrast our sharp drop in the past) but I am hoping that those who say 'hockey stick' are incorrect (translation, if you look at economic numbers on a table/graph, you would see a large drop (check!) and a loooonnnnnggggg slow recovery, hence the name hockey stick). Either way, the UCLA people expect unemployment to average around 9.7% this year and it won't drop below 9% until 2012.
To totally contradict today's posting (referencing Fannie and Freddie predictions) a March 15 forecast from MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) said they expect rates to rise to 5.8% in the final quarter of the year and even hit 6.2% in 2011 and 6.4% in 2012. Yikes!
To totally contradict today's posting (referencing Fannie and Freddie predictions) a March 15 forecast from MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) said they expect rates to rise to 5.8% in the final quarter of the year and even hit 6.2% in 2011 and 6.4% in 2012. Yikes!
Time is up! (and time to move to ATL!)
All too often you hear the phrase "For A Limited Time" tossed out in marketing. As noted in last month's email, time may be running out for these incredibly low rates due to TODAY's end of the Fed's $1.25T (yes, Trillion) program to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The program provided liquidity for Freddie and Fannie, keeping rates low and reducing financing costs. Low point? 4.71% for a 30-year fixed in December! But "what now" since the Fed is ending this program? I predicted a larger jump in rates but I have to retract based on what I've recently read (either way I hope rates remain low!). Estimates from Freddie/Fannie expect a rise of less than a quarter point in the next 3 months (a rise of about $30/month payment on a $250K loan). Why so 'low'? Right now the investment 'spread' for US Treasuries is low but higher for MBS so they are attractive to money managers, banks and pension funds (I also read that China is not buying as many Treasuries so be aware that the USA could face higher interest rates to finance our ever-increasing budget deficits, but I digress). In essence, the private industry players are stepping in to fill the void left by the Fed so rates should remain lower, though the (estimated) average will be just over 5% and under 5.25% (for reference, the average for the past decade was 6.2%). Note-the Fed is poised to 'jump back in the market' if there is a significant 'run-up' in rates.
So rates should be 'okay' but are we out of the woods yet? Well, we don't know what will happen after April 30th when the tax credits expire (actually, July 1 will be the true barometer as you MUST be under contract by 4/30 and you MUST close by 6/30 to get the final tax credit). Robert Shiller (of the S&P/Case-Shiller index) said "You don't make addicts go cold turkey. The credit interferes with the market in an arbitrary way, but ending it now would be psychologically powerful. People will be in a bad mood about buying a house." All I can say, try being a seller! Talk about a bad mood... or why not try to buy a short-sale? THAT'S truly 'bad mood' material!
Let's talk about ATL now. No less than the New York Times (albeit in blog form) noted "Don't count Atlanta out." Harvard Economics Professor Edward L. Glaeser notes that ATL has had its ups (#2 in population growth of 1.13M people from 2000-2008) and downs (annual building permits dropped like a rock from 2005-2009, highest of any other metropolitan area) but we have many things going for us. Click on the link to read the article but John Adams has a companion article that sums up his 3 maj or factors for our future success: ATL is dominant in the region, with no real rivals; we have a 'business-friendly' political environment; we have a highly skilled population (nearly 43% of adults have college degrees vs. 27% nationwide). Not only that, a recent KPMG study ranked ATL the second most cost-competitive 'large city'. They used a matrix of 26 cost components such as labor, taxes, real estate and utilities as it relates to 17 industries based on a 10-year time period. Tampa was #1, with a cost index of 96.0 (100.0 being the national baseline) and ATL was 96.3. Our ranking was based on our competitive business costs (office leasing, transportation, labor, employee benefits and corporate tax rate). Miami, Baltimore, and Dallas round out the top 5. LA, NYC and SF were the three most expensive.
SO tell your friends it's time to relocate to ATL! Buy now, save now, and pop some bubbly along the way!
So rates should be 'okay' but are we out of the woods yet? Well, we don't know what will happen after April 30th when the tax credits expire (actually, July 1 will be the true barometer as you MUST be under contract by 4/30 and you MUST close by 6/30 to get the final tax credit). Robert Shiller (of the S&P/Case-Shiller index) said "You don't make addicts go cold turkey. The credit interferes with the market in an arbitrary way, but ending it now would be psychologically powerful. People will be in a bad mood about buying a house." All I can say, try being a seller! Talk about a bad mood... or why not try to buy a short-sale? THAT'S truly 'bad mood' material!
Let's talk about ATL now. No less than the New York Times (albeit in blog form) noted "Don't count Atlanta out." Harvard Economics Professor Edward L. Glaeser notes that ATL has had its ups (#2 in population growth of 1.13M people from 2000-2008) and downs (annual building permits dropped like a rock from 2005-2009, highest of any other metropolitan area) but we have many things going for us. Click on the link to read the article but John Adams has a companion article that sums up his 3 maj or factors for our future success: ATL is dominant in the region, with no real rivals; we have a 'business-friendly' political environment; we have a highly skilled population (nearly 43% of adults have college degrees vs. 27% nationwide). Not only that, a recent KPMG study ranked ATL the second most cost-competitive 'large city'. They used a matrix of 26 cost components such as labor, taxes, real estate and utilities as it relates to 17 industries based on a 10-year time period. Tampa was #1, with a cost index of 96.0 (100.0 being the national baseline) and ATL was 96.3. Our ranking was based on our competitive business costs (office leasing, transportation, labor, employee benefits and corporate tax rate). Miami, Baltimore, and Dallas round out the top 5. LA, NYC and SF were the three most expensive.
SO tell your friends it's time to relocate to ATL! Buy now, save now, and pop some bubbly along the way!
Monday, March 8, 2010
Rates at 7.5% by the end of 2010?
Read this article to see what I'm referencing. Nothing new that I haven't said before but just further thoughts that you need to make that loan decision NOW before rates go up! I hope that I'm wrong, but it's highly possible that this will happen. Happy Monday, eh?
Monday, February 22, 2010
How Interest Rates Move Video
Watch this video to learn "How Interest Rates Move". It's 7 minutes long but it gives you a great understanding of how rates work AND notes why rates will be jumping up soon AND why you want to get into the refinance process NOW or you'll be sorry! Don't delay, watch this as soon as possible! Cheers, Bo
Labels:
ben bernanke,
economy,
government,
housing,
inflation,
interest rates,
the Fed
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