Spend, spend spend

I had missed this email back in November but click HERE for an excellent read on why the government's SPENDING is killing our country. Well reasoned and supported...

Interest rates on the rise... move fast!

Are you considering a home purchase? A refinance? The time is NOW. Why? Read THIS ARTICLE noting that rates are rising but also take into account that it is widely accepted that the FED will raise short-term rates this summer. Sure, those rates actually have nothing to do with Long-term (e.g. mortgage) rates BUT it will still affect the marketplace. If they do raise the "Federal Funds Rate" expect to see car loan interest rates to go up as well as 2nd Mortgage (HELOC) rates, which are based on the Prime rate AND don't forget credit card rates will likewise rise. SO as noted, while the Prime rate may have 'no affect' on mortgage rates, the factors allowing people to AFFORD a mortgage will definitely be affected (okay, if they don't have ANY car loans or ANY credit card debt or ANY other interest rate affected items, then you are correct, I am wrong ; )

In sum-if you want to buy a house or refinance, do it NOW and definitely before August 1st when the world ends, thanks to dear old blubbering Barney Frank. Cheers!

Interesting article on how to retire a Millionaire!

This article from Clark Howard is a pretty clear example expressing the time value of money. Pretty sobering to know that $14K invested at an early age can = $1M over time and how long (and how much money!) you'd need to effectively "catch up" later in life. So get motivated and get those kids out there saving money! (Note-I am unsure how they take into account inflation, but it's still a great idea to start early and contribute often!) Cheers, Bo

Today's little ray of sunshine...

Actually, this could be titled "The Economy turns to the darkside", or so it seems right now! Today's consumer confidence numbers dropped almost 10 points--the first drop since our last 10 point drop (February 2010-the index had risen monthly since that month's report). There are two components to the Consumer Confidence Index-one that measures how consumers feel about the economy (now) and the other assesses their outlook over the next six months. As noted previously, it's all about JOBS. Not the health care debate (debacle?). Stocks even dipped below 10,000 today (around 2pm the Dow is still around 9900 (will the Dow even close above that this week?). To put numbers into perspective, this index hit an all-time low of 25.3 in February 2009. Above 90 = solid economy, over 100 = strong growth. Todays' number? 52.9 (down from May's 62.7, with the expectation today's numbers would be 62.8).

What else is a mess? Housing. Sales of new homes fell 33% in May, to the lowest level ON RECORD after the government tax credits expired (and to be honest, April's closings/contracts were not as amazing as we had hoped). What other fun statistics do I have for you? Auto sales are expected to slow for June (have you seen more 0% finance deals advertised? Yep, I thought so too). Companies tracking auto sales expect a 9-12% drop for June sales, so you can expect to have more TV ads screaming at you between your reality programs (is there anything else on TV?). A quote from George Pipas (Ford's top sales analyst) notes that "The two big issues with consumers right now are employment growth and income growth, and they're not seeing much of either." Well stated...

So again, consumer confidence is in the toilet, sales of new and previously owned homes fell last month, auto sales are down, stocks are down (but hey, Bond sales are up!) and it is expected that the unemployment rate will creep up to 9.8% from 9.7% when numbers are reported this Friday. The only positive things to report relate to home prices rising in April (again, most likely due to the tax credit push) and consumer spending (remember, that's 70% of our Economy) rose 0.2% last month with personal income rising 0.4% (so more saving, less spending).

Finally--what other 'big picture' items could dump us into a DD? (no, not Pamela Anderson, that would be a "Double Dip" as in recession) Unfortunately, there are several disturbances in 'the Force' that are still unsettled. Globally, Asian markets fell after indexes related to China's economic activity fell and European indexes fell sharply after Greek workers walked off the job to protest budget cuts (how's that Socialist thing working out for you?). So roll that into our own government budget cuts, end of fiscal stimulus programs, problems in Europe and a slowdown in China--could that force a double dip recession? Time will tell. But for the United States, 2 comments attributed to a broker in NY (Doreen Mogavero) ring true: "People are starting to see that this recovery, as it is, is going to take considerably longer than anybody had anticipated." Relating to jobs and the job report, "That is the core of the recovery here. People have to feel they're going to work. If they don't they're not going to spend money." Again, well stated. So how confident are you? I'm not feeling it today... Ask me tomorrow or something...

A tale of two stories

Read this article first; then read this article second. Same data, two different conclusions. On one hand you have Economists; you could say they are biased for the positive as they work for an investment company. As for the AP article, you could slam the author as being part of the evil 'mainstream media'. Who is right? We don't know yet. I for one like the Economists' prediction. Why? Well, other than self-serving cheerleading (e.g. real estate is our business) I do like to hear the positive spin, especially after so many negative news that has come down the pike. As for the AP? My guess is to sell newspapers, but I may be wrong. Who knows? As for noting that home sales will fall in the second half of the year... well, let's just say they are most likely not in our business. Yes, home sales will fall in the Fall of 2010. Why? Sales are typically slower in the Fall, but for the 2009 Tax Credit. So having sales drop in the Fall is not news to anyone in our industry--the Spring is 'where it's at' in terms of sales. Summer is somewhat busy but people are more focused on vacation and keeping the kids entertained. Likewise, most sales are finalized prior to the beginning of the school year so that the kids can be legally enrolled in the proper school. As for the Fall? It's just not that active, worse for the Winter. The bottom line is this--both could easily be right and/or wrong. As noted, I am hoping that the more rosy opinion is correct. Rates are still LOW and the inventory is still high so there are a lot of deals to find. If you want to buy a house, forget the tax credit for now; just ask for $8,000 (or more?) off the sales price! And sellers? Just remember you may lose money on the sale of your home, but think of the concessions you can ask for your replacement purchase? Ah, to be liquid... I'd love a mountain house and some rentals!!!

Rates at 7.5% by the end of 2010?

Read this article to see what I'm referencing. Nothing new that I haven't said before but just further thoughts that you need to make that loan decision NOW before rates go up! I hope that I'm wrong, but it's highly possible that this will happen. Happy Monday, eh?

How Interest Rates Move Video

Watch this video to learn "How Interest Rates Move". It's 7 minutes long but it gives you a great understanding of how rates work AND notes why rates will be jumping up soon AND why you want to get into the refinance process NOW or you'll be sorry! Don't delay, watch this as soon as possible! Cheers, Bo

Uh-oh... The Economy stumbles a bit...

Unemployment claims rose last week and inflation jumped more than forecast in January. Yes, there are still positive news items (manufacturing is up, cars are selling, new home permits up slightly and pricing stabilizing) but the core issue currently is the job situation (a reminder to those 'in charge'--it has ALWAYS been about jobs--NOT our health care). Why is this important? If inflation keeps rising, how does the Fed combat that? They raise interest rates! What will KILL home sales? Rising interest rates! (right Mr. Carter?) What else? Well, the Fed has been more or less buying loans (in simplistic terms). At the end of March, this will end, so we can see rates hike up based on the fact that it will be more difficult to obtain funds. This can also hurt home sales and refinances. I will expand on this soon, but suffice it to say that we are nearing a 'perfect storm' environment for home sales: the tax credit will expire soon (must be under contract by the end of March); the Fed will need to raise interest rates to combat inflation (prediction-by Summer); the Fed will stop shoring up the mortgage market at the end of March. bottom line-if you are on the fence, BUY OR REFI NOW!

As for health care, READ THIS from the AJC--I wish our politicians would....

Quick take on the economy

I have different items to work on today so here's my economics report for the current period: unemployment is still dragging down our country. In Georgia, it's really not going to be much better in 2010 as so many of our jobs were lost due to the housing implosion. SO housing is still going to drive this recovery--or not. If you have a mortgage in the mid-5's or 6% (or an adjustable that can 're-set' in the next year or so), you need to think about refinancing by Summer. Ditto for home purchases as there is not much time left on the homebuyer's tax credit. Housing starts are up in the South and competition for homes (new or 'used') will pick up again soon so act now before the crowds start bidding up prices. Act now before inflation kicks in and rates go back up (take a look at both the PPI and CPI if you need confirmation on that). Act now to get out from under the burden of rent!

That dreaded "I" word...

Yes, INFLATION. Anyone alive in the Jimmy Carter era just visibly shuddered (I know I did)... What about inflation? Well, the Fed has kept rates incredibly (artificially?) low in order to spur on the "recovery" (again in quotes due to the low rate of job creation) and certain sectors have experienced rising costs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is up, which would typically bring us a rate increase--ditto for consumer goods and energy pricing. SO if Inflation is coming (or is already here as some say) we would typically see the Fed raising rates after this week's meeting. What's that mean to you and me? Well, things seem to be improving relatively quickly, except for jobs, though there was a small drop in November's unemployment numbers. While energy prices are up the price of oil and gasoline has dropped recently. In essence there are a lot of positive things happening (even increased consumer spending was reported!) but there is still a 'wait and see' feel to our nation. I don't think anyone will feel comfortable while jobs are still getting slashed (which will continue into 2010 per many Economists) and until this health care fiasco is sorted out (put it this way--if you were a small business owner, would you be hiring right now with the uncertainty of being in business with the possible changes on the horizon?). Likewise, we have a long way to go despite all the 'dog and pony' shows going on about banks. There are few modifications taking place and the ones that are proceeding aren't helping to stop the flow of foreclosures. And to add to the misery, we STILL have at least a year of adjustable rate mortgages 're-setting' (possibly two) due to the large numbers of 5/1 ARM refinances that happened... well, just over 5 years ago. So what of inflation? If things keep improving and (as noted in several postings) if we continue 'printing money' the Fed will HAVE to raise rates. Will the struggling economy be able to take that shot? As always, time will tell :) Good luck, God Bless, Be safe... Bo