"Timing" your closing

As investment advisors say, you can't time the market. But in real estate, there is one sure thing--the end of the month will be a busy time for closings. Why? Well, when you buy a home, the interest clock starts ticking from the date of closing. When you pay your mortgage, the interest is paid for the full month in arrears. That means that any interest 'charged' in the current month is due at closing. Let's put that into perspective. Today is the 11th. IF you closed today, your new loan's first payment would be due in APRIL. When you pay April's payment, guess what? You just covered all the interest for MARCH. That leaves February hanging so that would leave 19 days of interest left due and payable at closing. For a $200,000 loan at 4.25%, that would be around $23 per day SO you'd have to come up with $437 at closing to cover the interest. If you closed on the 29th, you'd have to pay ONE day of interest or $23; if you closed on Friday the 26th you'd pay $92. IF you are a cash-strapped buyer that extra money can mean a LOT (like paying for movers or pizza for all your buddies who are helping you move). I can see why people want to close at month-end but let me tell you why NOT.

Think of it this way--this is not a revelation to realtors and loan officers. They know their clients' personal situations and will try to schedule these cash-strapped buyers on the last day or as close to it as possible. Again, I get it BUT just realize that there are many issues that could come up. As EVERYONE is super busy, what happens if something goes wrong? Primarily, if the loan is delayed then the closing can be delayed. Again, everyone is busy; things happen. BUT why would you want to set yourself up for something to happen to YOU? Also, people tend to want to close on Friday. Why? Well, the theory is so that they can move the next day. IF something goes wrong though, guess what? If your Seller (especially if they are a builder) "doesn't care" that you have a $100/hour mover idling in the cul de sac. They "don't care" that you have everything lined up. If they don't get their money, it didn't fund. If it didn't fund, you don't own a home. If you don't own the home, do you expect them to just let you move in? NO. Again, they aren't truly uncaring people (hence the quotes around don't care). With that being said, ask any closing attorney or agent about horror stories about people moving in and causing damage, etc. prior to owning the home, with the extreme example of that happening PLUS something totally going south with the loan process and then they can't actually buy the home. Who would be stuck? THE SELLER. (SO if you are a Seller, think twice about allowing someone to move in w/o closing; call and ask me why sometime; that's another post!).

Tips? Close the equivalent of the week of the 20th or 25th on a WEDNESDAY. Why? Well, you're close to month-end (less out of pocket, CHECK) and guess what? If 'something' happens at closing, there are several days to sort it out. What could happen? Missing documents, underwriting issues, missing funds, delayed funding wires, delayed documents, etc. etc. etc. In all honesty, I haven't had many closings take more than a day (extra) to fund when issues have come up; but if it was on a Friday, you'd be looking for a hotel!

There's my tip for the day! Get out there and find your next home! (and remember to call us to close it for you!) Bo

Interest rates on the rise... move fast!

Are you considering a home purchase? A refinance? The time is NOW. Why? Read THIS ARTICLE noting that rates are rising but also take into account that it is widely accepted that the FED will raise short-term rates this summer. Sure, those rates actually have nothing to do with Long-term (e.g. mortgage) rates BUT it will still affect the marketplace. If they do raise the "Federal Funds Rate" expect to see car loan interest rates to go up as well as 2nd Mortgage (HELOC) rates, which are based on the Prime rate AND don't forget credit card rates will likewise rise. SO as noted, while the Prime rate may have 'no affect' on mortgage rates, the factors allowing people to AFFORD a mortgage will definitely be affected (okay, if they don't have ANY car loans or ANY credit card debt or ANY other interest rate affected items, then you are correct, I am wrong ; )

In sum-if you want to buy a house or refinance, do it NOW and definitely before August 1st when the world ends, thanks to dear old blubbering Barney Frank. Cheers!

Rent vs. Buying in ATL

These people DO realize that you could buy a nice HOUSE in-town for somewhere close to the monthly rents listed, right???

Click HERE for the story. Bottom line--if you can afford rent over $1200 per month, you can afford a home!

Home sales info!

More info on the housing market (click HERE for the article).

While I understand the comment from an economics standpoint I totally disagree with the 'concept' that existing-home sales don't contribute to the GDP. There is a HUGE ripple effect from the purchase/sale of a home--Sellers (hopefully) got paid and now can purchase another home or more 'stuff' (or pay down debt so they can get more 'stuff') and Buyers need to make that home 'theirs' (Home Depot/Lowes, here they come! Ditto for furniture, electronics, etc.). Regardless, good info!

Buying vs. Renting--in a word: Wealth!

Click HERE for a great article as to why homeowners are in general more well off than renters. Food for thought! Bo

Renting vs. Owning--a quick commentary

I was reviewing a contract for a gentleman purchasing an in-town townhome in the $300's; his mortgage was going to be about $1700 with Dekalb taxes and it seemed like a killer deal. While he will probably pay some monthly HOA dues, I know that there are older homes in our area (Brookhaven) that can be purchased in this price point that would NOT require HOA dues. What is the point of this commentary? He moved out of an upscale apartment complex because his monthly rent on a 2 Bedroom/2 Bath apartment with less than 1300 square feet was going to be $1625 per month! OUCH!

I am just using this example to give you pause to think about why you're renting (if you are...). If you pay rent, it goes to the landlord. If you pay your own mortgage, your asset is (hopefully!) appreciating and your balance is dropping. If you do your homework, you can find something much larger than 1300 square feet for a lower monthly cost. Yes, you may have more to upkeep but the tax benefits alone may make it worth it! Regardless, I continue to be blown away by renters who pay such high amounts when financing is so inexpensive!

With that being said, move quickly! Rates are still low; inventory is still tight. BUT rates WILL go up and there will always be houses out there--you just have to dig!

One way the shutdown could hurt the mortgage industry

Take a look at this document from the Mortgage Bankers Association; this explains how mortgages could be affected by a prolonged shutdown. One client's thoughts said that we're probably good for the next few weeks but if this lasts longer, month-end closings could be affected! Yikes!

Click HERE for the article.

Why Good Credit is important for loan rates.

I stole the following from a newsletter I received from a realtor friend, Byron Williamson (click here for Byron). This is great info about WHY it's important to maintain good credit! THANKS, Bo

There's a big difference between having an excellent credit score of 740 and the riskier low score of 620.
Not only will the home buyer with the low score have a higher interest rate and mortgage payments, but the closing costs will be more as they pay points to the lender so they can get a lower interest rate.
Lower score pays more for same rate
Consider a $300,000 conventional loan with 20% down on a $375,000 home. To get a 30-year fixed rate of 4.65 percent (under recent market conditions), a borrower with a 620 credit score would need to buy 3 discount points, at a cost of $9,000, according to Joe Parsons, a senior loan officer at PFS Funding in Dublin, CA. But a borrower with a 740 credit score could get the same rate by paying only 0.25% in points, or $750.
To get around the cost of paying points, most borrowers will accept a higher interest rate and slightly higher monthly payment. In the scenario above, a 740 credit score would allow them to pay no points for a loan at 4.875% interest and a $1,588 monthly mortgage payment.
To get the same loan rate, a borrower with a 620 credit score would have to pay 2.75% points, or $8,250 more in closing costs, Parsons said. As an alternative, they could go with a higher mortgage rate - the highest being 5.25% for a $1,657 monthly payment - but even then would still have to pay 0.7 % in points, or $2,100 in this scenario.
Having a good, bad or mediocre credit score can be the difference between getting approved for a loan or having to wait on the sideline to improve your credit.
"If somebody is just right on the cusp, picking up five to 10 (credit score) points may save them $1,000," Parsons says.
Savings, income won't lower your rate
Other than buying down the rate, there's not much more than improving their credit score that someone with a score of 650 or less can do for a conventional loan. Additional assets will help someone qualify for a loan, but they won't get them a lower interest rate.
"Mortgages are generally income based, they're not asset-based," Herb Ziev, a residential mortgage loan originator in Plano, Texas says. "Low credit scores mean higher default rates on home loans".
"It doesn't really have to do with how much money you have, or how much money you make," Ziev says. "It really has to do with risk."
For someone with a low credit score, compensating factors such as having a high amount of savings or having a high-paying job can help make them approvable for a loan, but they won't help get a better interest rate, says Greg Cook, a lender who specializes in helping first-time buyers.
A home loan approval is based on the totality of a borrower's financial profile, Cook says. This includes consistent, verifiable income and a demonstrated ability to save, along with a credit score. The down payment and credit score have the two biggest effects on a loan rate, with a higher down payment needed if a borrower has a low credit score, he says.
Improving your score
The best way to get around a low credit score - and thus a high home loan rate - is to improve the credit score, which can take time, loan experts say.
For someone with a lot of credit cards and credit card debt, a credit score can increase by 70 to 80 points by paying off the cards, he says.
"Sometimes it's as simple as going back and negotiating if you have an outstanding collection," Cook says.
Six to 12 months of paying down credit balances and not having late payments will significantly affect a credit score, says Cyndee Kendall, regional sales manager in Northern California in the mortgage banking division at bank of the West.
Having a high percentage of credit balances to available credit can be fixed in a month by paying down credit balances, Cook says. The ratio should be 30 percent or less, he says.
A borrower can have three different credit scores from the three credit reporting agencies, but lenders usually use the middle score.
Borrowers with low credit scores have the most to gain by improving their scores, Kendall says.
Easier approval on FHA, VA loans
First-time buyers with low credit scores can get FHA and VA loans that aren't dependent on credit scores, though credit history is taken into account, Kendall says. For an FHA loan, a credit score in the low 600s is as low as they can go to get a loan, Ziev says.
"They can get a better interest rate," Cook says of borrowers of the federal government's backing of FHA loans, "but they're going to have to improve their credit score."
What shouldn't be done to improve a credit score is to get rid of credit cards entirely, experts say, though not using them for awhile is a good idea if it can help the user pay off the balance quicker. It's almost a Catch-22, but you need credit to get more credit.
"If you've got no credit history, then people aren't going to give you credit," Ziev says.
(note: Mortgage rates may change rapidly. All rates cited above are based on market conditions at the time of the conversation)

Rent vs. Buy: The New York Times perspective

See this article from the New York Times to see what the fuss is all about. Also, read this from the Atlanta Business Chronicle for ATL specific info. Rates are great; go buy now : )

Time for a Summer Vacation? Hope not...

As noted in last month's email, the tax credit has expired and related closings have to take place by the end of June. What about July? Are we all just going to be sitting around with nothing to do? I for one (a) hope that's not true and (b) don't believe it to be true. Yes, there are many issues lingering (like dropping prices and an ever-rising tide of foreclosures) but more core items are coming together (like economic growth, increased employment and better rates). If we could just get some common sense underwriting as well as reasonable appraisals, I think we'd be in much better shape! By way of reference, for a great article on the current state of appraisals, click here (great work, Jim!).
Home prices are still dropping, thanks to foreclosures. That isn't a problem for buyers (except as noted in the article above) but it is an issue for sellers. Yes, you can swallow your pride and lose several thousand on a sale in order to save many more thousands on a subsequent purchase, but first you need to find a buyer. What if there is a foreclosure and/or a short-sale around the corner? Unless they are in a hurry to buy, those properties may be more attractive as they can be purchased for pennies on the dollar versus your need to at least pay off your mortgage--therein lies the problem! I have no solution to offer, but at least rates are still incredibly low--the average 30-year is reportedly 4.78%, which is the lowest of the year (compared to December 2009's record low of 4.71%) and more positive news is being reported, except for the BP oil fiasco and European money woes. However, we are benefiting from their problems as investors seek a safe haven in our bonds (which in turn helped our rates). As Europe 'heals' and our recovery continues, however, rates are likely to move higher as investors seek higher returns and focus on riskier investments than our bonds. So go for it now (like all the other consumers applying to refi--currently the highest level since October 2009, per the MBA) and lock in while you still can!
Have a great holiday weekend; THANK YOU to all who serve (or served) in our military! God Bless America!

A tale of two stories

Read this article first; then read this article second. Same data, two different conclusions. On one hand you have Economists; you could say they are biased for the positive as they work for an investment company. As for the AP article, you could slam the author as being part of the evil 'mainstream media'. Who is right? We don't know yet. I for one like the Economists' prediction. Why? Well, other than self-serving cheerleading (e.g. real estate is our business) I do like to hear the positive spin, especially after so many negative news that has come down the pike. As for the AP? My guess is to sell newspapers, but I may be wrong. Who knows? As for noting that home sales will fall in the second half of the year... well, let's just say they are most likely not in our business. Yes, home sales will fall in the Fall of 2010. Why? Sales are typically slower in the Fall, but for the 2009 Tax Credit. So having sales drop in the Fall is not news to anyone in our industry--the Spring is 'where it's at' in terms of sales. Summer is somewhat busy but people are more focused on vacation and keeping the kids entertained. Likewise, most sales are finalized prior to the beginning of the school year so that the kids can be legally enrolled in the proper school. As for the Fall? It's just not that active, worse for the Winter. The bottom line is this--both could easily be right and/or wrong. As noted, I am hoping that the more rosy opinion is correct. Rates are still LOW and the inventory is still high so there are a lot of deals to find. If you want to buy a house, forget the tax credit for now; just ask for $8,000 (or more?) off the sales price! And sellers? Just remember you may lose money on the sale of your home, but think of the concessions you can ask for your replacement purchase? Ah, to be liquid... I'd love a mountain house and some rentals!!!

Time is up! (and time to move to ATL!)

All too often you hear the phrase "For A Limited Time" tossed out in marketing. As noted in last month's email, time may be running out for these incredibly low rates due to TODAY's end of the Fed's $1.25T (yes, Trillion) program to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The program provided liquidity for Freddie and Fannie, keeping rates low and reducing financing costs. Low point? 4.71% for a 30-year fixed in December! But "what now" since the Fed is ending this program? I predicted a larger jump in rates but I have to retract based on what I've recently read (either way I hope rates remain low!). Estimates from Freddie/Fannie expect a rise of less than a quarter point in the next 3 months (a rise of about $30/month payment on a $250K loan). Why so 'low'? Right now the investment 'spread' for US Treasuries is low but higher for MBS so they are attractive to money managers, banks and pension funds (I also read that China is not buying as many Treasuries so be aware that the USA could face higher interest rates to finance our ever-increasing budget deficits, but I digress). In essence, the private industry players are stepping in to fill the void left by the Fed so rates should remain lower, though the (estimated) average will be just over 5% and under 5.25% (for reference, the average for the past decade was 6.2%). Note-the Fed is poised to 'jump back in the market' if there is a significant 'run-up' in rates.
So rates should be 'okay' but are we out of the woods yet? Well, we don't know what will happen after April 30th when the tax credits expire (actually, July 1 will be the true barometer as you MUST be under contract by 4/30 and you MUST close by 6/30 to get the final tax credit). Robert Shiller (of the S&P/Case-Shiller index) said "You don't make addicts go cold turkey. The credit interferes with the market in an arbitrary way, but ending it now would be psychologically powerful. People will be in a bad mood about buying a house." All I can say, try being a seller! Talk about a bad mood... or why not try to buy a short-sale? THAT'S truly 'bad mood' material!
Let's talk about ATL now. No less than the New York Times (albeit in blog form) noted "Don't count Atlanta out." Harvard Economics Professor Edward L. Glaeser notes that ATL has had its ups (#2 in population growth of 1.13M people from 2000-2008) and downs (annual building permits dropped like a rock from 2005-2009, highest of any other metropolitan area) but we have many things going for us. Click on the link to read the article but John Adams has a companion article that sums up his 3 maj or factors for our future success: ATL is dominant in the region, with no real rivals; we have a 'business-friendly' political environment; we have a highly skilled population (nearly 43% of adults have college degrees vs. 27% nationwide). Not only that, a recent KPMG study ranked ATL the second most cost-competitive 'large city'. They used a matrix of 26 cost components such as labor, taxes, real estate and utilities as it relates to 17 industries based on a 10-year time period. Tampa was #1, with a cost index of 96.0 (100.0 being the national baseline) and ATL was 96.3. Our ranking was based on our competitive business costs (office leasing, transportation, labor, employee benefits and corporate tax rate). Miami, Baltimore, and Dallas round out the top 5. LA, NYC and SF were the three most expensive.
SO tell your friends it's time to relocate to ATL! Buy now, save now, and pop some bubbly along the way!

What's really going on? Key word is 'underwater'.

This article from USA Today is spot-on. People would love to 'move up' but they can't get out of their old home! My old house in Smyrna is still rented (thank goodness!) but it may be worth less than my mortgages so it will be difficult to sell. Our current home is definitely underwater as the mortgages are easily $20,000-50,000 higher than the value (not that we're trying to sell/move). This is one of the main stories that every American should understand--and I wish Congress could understand it as well and try to stop regulating with silly new programs (HVCC anyone?) that have unintended consequences. Instead of the waste of time, money and resources on the health care debate, the focus should be on 2 things: jobs and housing. If you get those 2 areas sorted out, EVERYTHING will come together. I do feel that healthcare (like anything government regulates) needs to be reviewed and 'tweaked'. I am NOT in favor of governmental control and we need to see how both sides (Dems/Reps) can figure this out together--AFTER they sort out the economy! My 2 cents...

Quick take on the economy

I have different items to work on today so here's my economics report for the current period: unemployment is still dragging down our country. In Georgia, it's really not going to be much better in 2010 as so many of our jobs were lost due to the housing implosion. SO housing is still going to drive this recovery--or not. If you have a mortgage in the mid-5's or 6% (or an adjustable that can 're-set' in the next year or so), you need to think about refinancing by Summer. Ditto for home purchases as there is not much time left on the homebuyer's tax credit. Housing starts are up in the South and competition for homes (new or 'used') will pick up again soon so act now before the crowds start bidding up prices. Act now before inflation kicks in and rates go back up (take a look at both the PPI and CPI if you need confirmation on that). Act now to get out from under the burden of rent!

Current Outlook

The Recession Is Over!

Oh, really? Ask one of the thousands of unemployed people and I'd bet you'll hear a different answer. Yes, home sales (and prices) have risen a bit and yes, retail sales have risen a bit, BUT we need jobs. (I could digress about wasting time with health care reform vs. our real problems (It's the Economy, Stupid!) but this is not to be a politicized rant today).

This week's unemployment figures didn't truly rise (on a nationalized level, but in GA it actually went UP) but the numbers are higher than a level that indicates the economy is adding jobs. New unemployment claims have fallen around 22% since the Spring, but who is hiring? With people losing jobs and with those people not FINDING jobs, foreclosures could be the next flood to hit. We have been hit with all the adjustable-rate and/or subprime loan foreclosures in prior years but we are seeing many more fixed rate 'plain vanilla' loans going to the courthouse steps of late. To turn the tide, we need to see weekly claims to fall to higher than 400,000 for several weeks! Unemployment benefits were extended, but this lifeline will run out in January unless we see another extension from Congress. Some members of "The Fed" have noted that our recovery will resemble an "L" with a gradual upward tilt from the base (which is better than the L pointing down!). Small businesses typically contribute about a third of net job growth in the last 2 economic recoveries--not this time! Small businesses have accounted for about 45% of net job losses through the end of 2008, so it looks like we are in for a long fight...

On a positive note, the federal tax credit for 1st-time home buyers was extended and 'move up' buyers were given their own credit of $6,500 as well. HOWEVER, I am very disappointed in that credit as it is restricted to people who have lived in their home for 5 of the last 8 years. Let's cut to the chase-I am 44 and I am finally 'stable' (well, at least as it relates to moving!) and I don't plan to move any time soon. I have never lived in a home for over 5 years so if I was looking to move (I'm not) I couldn't get the tax credit. I think a more reasonable figure would have been a 3-year restriction but no one called for my opinion...

If we could loosen credit to credit-worthy borrowers AND get back to common sense underwriting we could get out of this mess faster. As I keep saying, this all started with Housing and Housing will get us out of this mess. We need to repeal the Home Valuation Code of Conduct as well so we can go back to using quality appraisals vs. whomever happens to be cheapest, but again, that's a topic for another day.

Finally, I read that Atlanta's housing inventory began to deplete in the 3rd quarter and housing starts actually ROSE. The quote (from Metrostudy) that really rang true for me was this: "We do not have an oversupply problem, we have a demand problem". This is what I am referencing above-if people could sell their homes they could move into a new home. It's like a 'reverse' domino effect-nothing is falling into place so that the next domino can fall. No credit = no home sale. No home sale = no seller becoming buyer. Hopefully we'll see some positive movement sooner rather than later!

Obama signs tax credit extension!

In a rare bit of bi-partisanship, the house passed a bill extending jobless benefits AND the 1st-time homebuyer tax credit in a 403-12 vote (wonder who the 12 were??). The bill also expanded this tax credit, giving a $6,500.00 tax credit to 'move up' buyers. While this is great news, there is one "issue" (if you can call it that) about this new credit--you have to have lived in your principal residence for over 5 years. Using myself as an example, I have only been in my current home for 3 years. Prior to that, I lived in my old house for right at or just under 5 years, so that may have worked, but I was only in my first 2 homes for 2 years/4 years respectively. I would say that this is more or less common (to be so 'transient'). People like to move up; that's the goal! My current home is exactly what I need for now and I don't forsee moving in the near future. But if I wanted to move, this new law would not benefit me at all. I would think that this restriction is going to make this new tax credit pretty worthless. The intention was good, but the execution leaves a lot to be desired. But hey, I won't complain any longer as any help for the housing industry these days is a good thing (and the tax credit extension is a great thing too!).

One soapbox issue: based on how well the government has performed with the H1N1 vaccine, do you really want them handling our healthcare? While I'm at it, can you think of ANYTHING the government does efficiently? Just a thought...