Death to the USA?

It seems that the US is under attack on many fronts. One of which is from within, as we battle over (fill in the blank, or just say 'everything') in a highly partisan fashion, as if party 'loyalty' (read: special interest groups and lobbyists, or just say MONEY) is more important than our country. BOTH parties are guilty and I am ashamed at our government. PERIOD. It makes me want to go read Vince Flynn's Term Limits again! We are also under attack from terrorists here (arrests in NYC and Colorado?) and abroad. Regardless of that fact, and how G-20 wants to further emasculate our country, I hear today that the UN wants us to step it up re: climate change. Likewise, President Obama pledges that the US will do its part to reduce greenhouse gases and emissions. I actually agree with him in principle. While I do think Al Gore is an alarmist, self-serving person (with tainted 'facts' to support his beliefs), climate change is something for us to deal with. While I don't buy into all the arguments (and vehemently argue that 'cap and trade' is the worlds largest shell game) I feel that we CAN do so much more to work on reducing emissions.

Today's rant? The UN wants us to curb emissions--the main emissions are from our coal-fired plants. I know that most of our utilities are entrenched with this technology. Likewise, the coal 'scrubbers' to clean the emissions are incredibly expensive. Who pays for that? Not only do the utility companies, but WE pay for it as well. However, the utilities have to 'ask' to raise rates and the PSC won't always allow it, so the utilities continue to put off implementing scrubbers as long as possible; can't say I blame them!

What is the white horse for utilities? Windmills are cool (check out the photo from Maui, Hawaii) but not all areas are conducive to generating the power necessary to run our utilities; likewise, how do you get the power to the people (sorry, easiest phrase to use!). The best option may be nuclear power. Yep, I said the n-word (not THAT n-word, but it's almost as offensive to enviromentalists!). I acknowledge that the spent fuel is an issue, but nuclear is a great alternative; an alternative that finds great success throughout the world--in countries without as much regulation. If we can run a fleet of nuclear powered submarines, why can't we figure out how to build a 'standardized' nuclear power plant? Figure out an easily duplicated design and BUILD IT. Clean power; ask the French! 3 Mile Island was a mistake as was Chernobyl. We are one of the most high-tech countries in the world--surely we can build a new plant that is safe? Make that a priority, Mr. President; that will be a great legacy for the future of our country!

Mixed bag Monday

Economic indicators missed their mark today by a tenth. Expectations for the index to rise .7 percent were off resulting in a smaller rise of .6%. While the markets are currently on 'sell' mode this morning since the numbers were off, I do think we need to focus on the fact that this is still a POSITIVE number, albeit off the pace expected. So we've had five months of rising indicators but unemployment still lingers. Yes, temp firms are seeing some increased business but not for temp to PERM jobs as of yet. Here in ATL, economists feel that job recovery is coming in 2010 but views differ on the amounts of job increases--but most feel that it may be later in 2010 than earlier so we're definitely not out of the woods yet.

What about real estate? Interest rates are still currently low, but the expiring $8000 tax credit could cause big problems AFTER November 30th as the tax credit incentive disappears. Senator Isaakson is fighting for an extension; hopefully he will be successful (insert rant about this credit being only for 1st-time buyers here).

Don't forget that we still have a lot of unsold inventory, including a lot of partially-built subdivisions. Factor in all the foreclosures in the market and there are still inventory concerns. If you wanted to buy, you have a golden opportunity. If you STILL rent you are an idiot (unless you have a really good reason to have temporary housing--if not, as you throw away your rent each month, remember that you're an idiot :) Keep the faith; like our rain, this can't last forever! Happy Monday! Bo

Latest newsletter: "Everything's Coming Up Roses"

Suddenly everyone is an optimist! Don't get me wrong, I am truly hopeful that our economy is out of the dumps. As you already know from my emails and blogs, I have always been a huge cheerleader for our economy. We have seen so many reports that match Ben Bernanke's earlier predictions for a 3rd or 4th quarter recovery. On Tuesday we heard that metro ATL home prices increased in June, gaining ground for the 1st time in 25 months! The downside is that prices are still down 14% from 2008 and over 20% from the peak in 2007. The National Association of Realtors paints a rosy picture as well showing July sales rising 7.2%, beating estimates. Likewise new home sales were up 9.6%. So the monster that caused this recession (housing!) may be growing weak.
So why am I nervous? Well, those first-time buyer credits expire in December. Realistically (with all the issues related to getting credit approved and appraised values) you need to be under contract in early October to close by the end of November. What will happen when those credit expire? Likewise, unemployment may top 11% in Georgia per local reports--figures show unemployment rose in 26 states and fell in 17. Finally, what if the government stops spending (or if investors stop buying our bonds)? One word: Inflation. We are definitely in a better position right now, but we're not out of the woods yet. Drive past local strip malls and you'll see a lot of "For Lease" signs. While single-family housing is picking up, commercial properties (and their loans) may be the next problem facing our economy. I may not have b een excited about economics while sitting in my college classes, but I can certainly now say that economics are no longer boring!

My dinner with Ben

"So a few weeks ago I had dinner with Ben Bernanke..."

Let that sink in for a moment... Damn, doesn't that sound cool? You'd think I was really tuned in to our # 1 economist and one of the top 5 most powerful men in our National Government. Well, it sounds cool AND it actually is true, but it's not as it sounds. The key is exploring the "with" in my first statement!

I recently took Susie to Puerto Rico for her birthday (a flight/hotel deal online was too good to pass up!) and chose a nice restaurant to celebrate on a Sunday night. We were told that we could not have reservations until well after 8pm, so we chose to pack up and go for the old-timer's early bird special (translation--we took a 6:30pm reservation). We were perplexed to find that the restaurant was virtually empty (I think there were 1 or 2 couples there). They had 2 large tables set up for what turned out to be a wedding party, but there were a ton of servers so they seemed to have coverage for the party AND the rest of the restaurant (remember, I used to work at Houston's and we were definitely a busy restaurant!). In any event we were enjoying our appetizers when the wedding party arrived, all aglow and happy and everyone took their places and the servers took orders, etc. As I was facing them, I couldn't help but glance over there from time to time, despite how fabulous Susie looked (see?). I finally noticed that one person in particular looked familiar. I told Susie that I thought it was Ben Bernanke. She couldn't really turn around as they would notice (you can see the table over her shoulder) but I was really convinced it was him! (as a sidebar, this tells you what a geek I am, as some famous football/baseball/basketball, etc. player could have been sitting right next to me and I wouldn't have known, but Big Ben is on my radar!). I asked our server; he said he didn't know but there were "men in the bar" with him, so then we knew! (He later confirmed that it was him). We later figured out that the restaurant was probably told not to allow anyone else to be seated around the time their dinner party arrived, because they all came in around the time that we wanted reservations. When we left, we saw that there were several casually dressed Secret Service (our guess) agents in the bar--imagine how many were around that we didn't see? I will say that is something our government DOES do well; kudos to the big guys with their radio earpieces!

I risked my life to bring you this (horrid) cell phone photo (good luck making him out as the light was poor!). In all honesty I really wanted to say hi, get an autograph, etc. but I couldn't bring myself to do it (irrespective of the armed men in the bar) as it was someones wedding party and it was "their" night--not my time to interrupt the festivities to shake Big Ben's hand... Maybe I'll get a chance someday!

2 Headlines to chew on

"Peach State great for retirees" and "Match.com: Atlanta among least expensive cities for a date". As for the retirees, evidently we have a lot of good tax breaks for Seniors and no inheritance tax. As for the dating set, while ATL is #11 out of 25 surveyed, our 'real level' should be higher as the top city was Pittsburgh, followed by Detroit. Indianapolis and St. Louis were also ranked higher than ATL. Then again, you'd have to move there, so balance the equities on that one... This was based on the price of a 'casual dinner' and two movie tickets. So get out there and see a movie tonight :) Cheers, Bo

Did you miss the bus?

It's time. We're hearing a lot more news about the economy improving, but we're also seeing rates rise. Unfortunately, it seems like inflation will rear its ugly head soon. People, rates are still LOW at 5.5% but they will be going up soon. How high? Who knows! Let's put rates into perspective--over 9 years ago (5/25/00 to be exact) I bought my Smyrna house (it's on the market again, by the way!). With 20% down and a 777 credit score, would you care to guess what the current rates were? My 30-year fixed rate "plain vanilla' mortgage was at 8.25%!!! That was the best out there at the time! I refinanced to 6.5% that October (and much lower than that later on), but I just want to point out that rates are constantly changing.
What about today and what's the 'bus' comment about? You know all the people waiting for the "perfect" time to buy? Well, they missed it. In all honesty, I'd say LAST MONTH was the perfect time to buy. Why? Rates were at their lowest, the media was still reporting 'gloom and doom' and inventories were still high. Now? Gee, you might actually hear some POSITIVE news on the economy out there! Let's review--unemployment claims were lower than last month (albeit still much higher than in 2008) and temporary staffing companies are doing brisk business; retail sales rose (May figures were the largest increase in 4 months); auto sales rose last month (thanks to incentives) and manufacturers are seeing some improvement as well. As far as real estate is concerned, new home (and resale) inventories are dropping and prices are slightly up, but again we have a lot of ground to regain after 2007/2008.
What are the negatives? Summer gas prices are up (and oil is back over $70 a barrel); Georgia is still # 7 in the nation for foreclosures and many state and local government agencies face staffing cutbacks and tax revenue shortfalls. I know that MY home's price dropped in value over the past year so I appealed the county's recent valuation--you may want to do the same. I know that will hurt my county, but I am hopeful that they can make some 'strategic' cuts that will save our tax dollars (I wish the US government would do the same). Finally, the credit clampdown may stall our recovery--rates are climbing and businesses are still having trouble financing inventory. If rates continue to go up, we'll have a 'whole new ball game'. Let's hope that doesn't happen. Me? I'm focusing on the good news and hoping for the best--you (and your clients) should too (and it's STILL a great time to buy!).

Today's News A Mixed Bag O' Nuts

Free for all today; pick one and run with it!

May new home sales dropped .6 percent (sales prices up from April though)
Durable Goods orders rise 1.8% in May (vs. expected decline of .6%)
Mortgage Applications RISE 6.6% for the week ending 6/19/9
(My fave:) Fed mulls tweaks to economic revival programs
Energy prices drop as gasoline supplies surge

Here's the deal--we are seeing a lot of positive things out there. Yes, rates are up a bit and inflation is still a threat. The Fed has to walk a razor's edge in terms of encouraging our economy but not ignoring the fact that inflation could absolutely kill our recovery. The Fed continues to auction bonds and there is a fear that demand may fall due to lower yields. If you raise yields, you will more or less raise long-term financing rates as the two are closely tied. So again, I push you to purchase or refi NOW and don't be greedy about that extra .25 point as you may face something much worse in the near future.

With that being said, the economy should begin to emerge out of our recession in the Fall, but (this is a big but) unemployment will continue to climb well into 2010. Economist Lynn Reaser (VP of National Association for Business Economics) was quoted saying "The Fed is sending the message that the economy is making progress toward a path of recovery, that the credit markets appear to be healing and inflation is not going to be a problem." I hope she's right (and other economists' prediction that we could see improvement in the July-Sept quarter). Hang in there!