A tale of two stories

Read this article first; then read this article second. Same data, two different conclusions. On one hand you have Economists; you could say they are biased for the positive as they work for an investment company. As for the AP article, you could slam the author as being part of the evil 'mainstream media'. Who is right? We don't know yet. I for one like the Economists' prediction. Why? Well, other than self-serving cheerleading (e.g. real estate is our business) I do like to hear the positive spin, especially after so many negative news that has come down the pike. As for the AP? My guess is to sell newspapers, but I may be wrong. Who knows? As for noting that home sales will fall in the second half of the year... well, let's just say they are most likely not in our business. Yes, home sales will fall in the Fall of 2010. Why? Sales are typically slower in the Fall, but for the 2009 Tax Credit. So having sales drop in the Fall is not news to anyone in our industry--the Spring is 'where it's at' in terms of sales. Summer is somewhat busy but people are more focused on vacation and keeping the kids entertained. Likewise, most sales are finalized prior to the beginning of the school year so that the kids can be legally enrolled in the proper school. As for the Fall? It's just not that active, worse for the Winter. The bottom line is this--both could easily be right and/or wrong. As noted, I am hoping that the more rosy opinion is correct. Rates are still LOW and the inventory is still high so there are a lot of deals to find. If you want to buy a house, forget the tax credit for now; just ask for $8,000 (or more?) off the sales price! And sellers? Just remember you may lose money on the sale of your home, but think of the concessions you can ask for your replacement purchase? Ah, to be liquid... I'd love a mountain house and some rentals!!!