More fun with Jobs and Rates (new and improved!)

Well, it seems ADP is reporting employers cut 23,000 jobs in March, when Economists had expected a GAIN of 40,000. What gives? Wondering aloud (no one is listening) if that had anything to do with the weather but I doubt that seriously. Friday's actual employment report (from the Labor Department) may tell a slightly different story as the ADP tracks real jobs (translation: private sector) while the Labor Department's numbers include governmental jobs, such as all those 2010 Census hires. Either way, Economists expect the Labor report to show an added 190,000 jobs in March, which would be great (and only the 2nd monthly increase since the recession began back in late 2007). UCLA economists noted that they expect the economy to continue to grow despite our high unemployment figures. They even rule out a double-dip recession and I agree. I doubt we'll have a V-shaped recovery (i.e. a sharp rise to contrast our sharp drop in the past) but I am hoping that those who say 'hockey stick' are incorrect (translation, if you look at economic numbers on a table/graph, you would see a large drop (check!) and a loooonnnnnggggg slow recovery, hence the name hockey stick). Either way, the UCLA people expect unemployment to average around 9.7% this year and it won't drop below 9% until 2012.

To totally contradict today's posting (referencing Fannie and Freddie predictions) a March 15 forecast from MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) said they expect rates to rise to 5.8% in the final quarter of the year and even hit 6.2% in 2011 and 6.4% in 2012. Yikes!